Even prior to Hurricane Floyd<\/a>, forecasters were predicting flooding. A lot of flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“We coordinated very closely with emergency managers and local government officials, and for two to three days before the storm, we were harping flooding, flooding, flooding. It’s catastrophic. Get ready,” said Steve Harned, former meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service (NWS) Raleigh forecast office<\/a>, in a 2002 interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“No one in places like Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Greenville, Goldsboro, Snow Hill, and Trenton could recall flooding at this level within living memory,” note authors Richard Moore and Jay Barnes, who interviewed Hamed and others in Faces from the Flood: Hurricane Floyd Remembered<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Capabilities for predicting rainfall amounts that detailed, and even observing in real time, were limited at the time,” recalls Rich Bandy, currently meteorologist-in-charge at the NWS Newport office<\/a>. As a result, many may have been caught off guard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CI-FLOW addresses what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> (NOAA) refers to as a “service gap” in areas where river and coastal waters meet. Bandy explains that river flooding forecasts get confounded at these integration zones where there is a tidal influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“There’s a need for better water information in coastal watersheds that experience tides,” says Suzanne Van Cooten, a hydrometeorologist and Sea Grant extension specialist at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory<\/a> (NSSL) in Norman, Okla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Emergency managers could be better able to stage their responses using these improved forecasts, says Bob Bacon, extension director for South Carolina Sea Grant<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Advanced knowledge that we’re in a flash flood watch allows us to start coordinating things so it’s not such a shock to everyone,” explains John Pack, emergency management coordinator for Beaufort County<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CI-FLOW started in 2000 when members from the Sea Grant network and NSSL \u2014 two programs within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research<\/a> (OAR) \u2014 met to identify opportunities for collaboration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After a successful but informal test of CI-FLOW’s ability to estimate rainfall and storm surge during Tropical Storm Hanna<\/a> in September 2008, partners are hopeful that more formal testing during the next major storm will mount further confidence in its coupled modeling capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tracking the raindrop from the sky to the summit to the sea…<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
CI-FLOW’s tagline also is the central theme that guides its science, according to the program’s Web site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CI-FLOW monitors and predicts water quantity and quality “at every point in a river basin or coastal watershed as the raindrop moves all the way through the system,” Van Cooten explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Tracking a raindrop” may not be as easy as it sounds. CI-FLOW uses a complex network of integrated technologies to track water along its path to a potential flood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Any one model may be good for a specific situation, but what about all the other situations?” says Kevin Kelleher, deputy director of NSSL. “Having more than one model and looking at them as a whole gives a better idea of how accurate the results are.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the Sky:<\/em> One of CI-FLOW’s goals is to produce very accurate, automated precipitation estimates. By using multiple sensors, including radars, rain gauges, satellites, numerical weather models and lightning detection networks. CI-FLOW provides a continuous assessment of rain falling onto the watershed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To the Summit:<\/em> Starting at the headwaters of the Tar and Neuse rivers all the way to Pamlico Sound, CI-FLOW monitors and predicts water quality \u2014 including salinity and amounts of contaminants \u2014 and quantity using multiple high-resolution models. These models simulate stream flow based on channel characteristics, soil type, slope of the land and vegetation patterns. The simulations can provide forecasters with multiple solutions for how and when water will be discharged from the rivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To the Sea:<\/em> CI-FLOW also adds the value of incorporating storm surge and wind characteristics from the coast into coastal watershed stream flow predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting the right science and getting it to the right people is important for implementing a project with so many partners and integrated technologies, Van Cooten notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moving CI-FLOW from a research phase to potential uses in the real world will take some high-tech output tools, as well as extension and education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meteorologists such as Bandy already have access to one of CI-FLOW’s rainfall estimation tools for making forecasts \u2014 the National Mosaic and Multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ) project. CI-FLOW uses NMQ to produce and map precipitation estimates within any given square-kilometer area across the nation once every five minutes. In the case of a major storm this hurricane season, partners are ready to perform an end-to-end CI-FLOW test and use results to predict flooding and storm surge in the Tar-Pamlico and Neuse river basins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Researchers and partners \u2014 including NWS meteorologists and emergency managers \u2014 will have access to the test results through a password-protected account on NOAA’s “nowCOAST” mapping portal online<\/a>. Others interested in the technology can use the nowCOAST Web site to view real-time NOAA coastal observations and forecasts across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These products can fit into a number of formal and informal education situations, says Lundie Spence, an original project collaborator and education director for South Carolina Sea Grant and the Southeast Center for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For more information on CI-FLOW, visit the Web: https:\/\/ciflow.nssl.noaa.gov\/<\/a>. Click on “National Mosaic & Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ)” or “NOAA nowCOAST” to learn more about CI-FLOW’s data output tools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This article was published in the Autumn 2009<\/a> issue of Coastwatch.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
For contact information and reprint requests, visit <\/em>ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/contact\/<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"