{"id":29661,"date":"2025-01-22T11:23:50","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T16:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/?p=29661"},"modified":"2025-02-10T15:02:26","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T20:02:26","slug":"winter-2025-update-sea-level-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/winter-2025-update-sea-level-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"New Sea Level Rise Projections for North Carolina"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
Projections suggest Beaufort, NC (here, during a King Tide), will average 60 annual days of high-tide flooding by 2050. Credit: Sarah Spiegler.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A new report predicts sea level rise in three North Carolina cities over the next century.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The N.C. Coastal Resources Commission Science Panel has released a new report<\/a> with projections for sea level rise this century in three North Carolina cities: Duck, Beaufort, and Wilmington. The panel of interdisciplinary scientists and administrators recommends that policymakers across the state consult with climatologists about planning for these impacts to ensure the best possible outcomes for residents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to previous reports from the panel, the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are unstable, causing variations on a global scale. There are also considerable local variations that can affect sea level rise at any given site, such as vertical land motion (the rate at which land rises or sinks based on tectonic plate motion). However, as researchers observe and gather more data, climatologists can make more accurate predictions based on global weather patterns, and new research has increased confidence in predictions through 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report divides the projections into five scenarios depending on global greenhouse gas emissions. These numbers are highly unpredictable, and, as a result, the categories allow for considerable variation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen we’re thinking about planning for sea level rise and climate change uncertainty, there’s a need to evolve our processes to be more holistic, adaptable, and forward-thinking,\u201d says Cayla Cothron<\/a>, North Carolina Sea Grant\u2019s coastal planning specialist. \u201cInstead of planning for one future, approaches like scenario planning can help us prepare for a range of possibilities and outcomes, making our plans more dynamic and allowing communities to better account for uncertainty and adapt as conditions change over time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Wilmington (here) could experience a meter of sea level rise by 2100, according to the Science Panel’s report. Credit: Jason W. Smith \/ Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The report provides key messages important to policymakers addressing sea level rise:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2050, flooding severity will significantly increase.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Average global temperature increase correlates to rising sea levels.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tracking the sources of rising sea levels is essential for planning.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA has predicted an average sea level rise of 10 to 14 inches <\/a>and<\/a> 10 times more frequent damaging floods by 2050<\/a>, which is consistent with the panel\u2019s findings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The panel’s report provided predictions for both average sea level rise and high-tide flooding levels \u2014 how many days per year each locale would experience a high-tide flood at \u201cintermediate\u201d scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the report, Duck will experience more sea level rise than the other two cities, with a predicted range of 0.5 meters of sea level rise and 100 high-tide flood days on average by 2050<\/strong> and 1.03 meters and 348 high-tide flood days by 2100. Both Beaufort and Wilmington will experience 0.4 meters of sea level rise by 2050<\/strong> and 1.0 meters of sea level rise by 2100. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beaufort, however, will face significantly more high-tide flooding days on average: 60 by 2050<\/strong> and 338 by 2100, whereas Wilmington will experience 30 high-tide flooding days on average by 2050 and 323 by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n THE PANEL

Spencer Rogers<\/a>, former coastal construction specialist with North Carolina Sea Grant, is a member of the panel, which also includes:

Laura Moore<\/em>,<\/strong> chair, professor, UNC-Chapel Hill, Department of Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, Chair

Kevin Conner<\/em>, US Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington

Reide Corbett<\/em>, executive director of Coastal Studies Institute, dean of Integrated Coastal Programs, East Carolina University

Andrea Hawkes<\/em>, associate professor of geology, University of North Carolina Wilmington

Joseph W. Long<\/em>, director, Coastal Engineering Program, Department of Physics & Physical Oceanography, University of North Carolina Wilmington\u00a0

Jesse McNinch<\/em>, research oceanographer, US Army Corps of Engineers

A. Brad Murray<\/em>, professor, Nicholas School of the Environment, Division of Earth and Ocean Science, Duke University

Martin Posey<\/em>, professor, Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington

Greg \u201cRudi\u201d Rudolph<\/em>, coastal geologist, Sulmara Subsea.\n <\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Science Panel’s full report<\/strong>:
2024 North Carolina Sea Level Rise Science Update<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More on sea level rise:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ice to Ocean: From the Sources of Sea Level Rise to the Coast of NC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vital Signs: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hit Highest Levels<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NC\u2019s True Ghost Story: A Tale of Carbon, Salt, and Sea Level Rise<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vital Signs: Most of World\u2019s Salt Marshes Likely Will Be Underwater by 2100<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last Word: Coastal Change in North Carolina<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mapping the Future: Climate Change and Flooding in Coastal North Carolina<\/a>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ruthie Froning<\/strong> is a contributing editor of Coastwatch<\/em> and a science communication intern with North Carolina Sea Grant. She is pursuing a master\u2019s degree in linguistics at NC State University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FROM THE WINTER 2025 ISSUE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new report predicts sea level rise in three North Carolina cities over the next century. The N.C. 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