{"id":31220,"date":"2025-02-17T16:27:49","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T21:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/?p=31220"},"modified":"2025-08-25T13:42:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T17:42:05","slug":"summer-2025-blue-crabs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/","title":{"rendered":"Will North Carolina\u2019s Blue Crabs Go Extinct?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"has-custombg-ten-text-color wp-block-ncst-pullquote\">\n  <div class=\"pullquote-container\">\n    <p class=\"pullquote-content\"><strong><em>Environmental stressors may push blue crab populations to their breaking point.<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<div class=\"is-text wp-block-ncst-buttons\">\n    \n<div class=\"is-style-secondary wp-block-ncst-button\">\n      <a\n        class=\"ncst-block__button-link btn\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025\/\"\n        data-ncst-lightbox=\"false\"\n                      >\n                  <span class=\"text\">FROM THE SUMMER 2025 ISSUE<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n              <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The North Carolina blue crab fishery is the state\u2019s most valuable commercial fishery. However, the blue crab stock is depleted from fishing and is vulnerable to environmental stressors like temperature changes and harmful chemicals.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Extreme temperatures can negatively impact growth, reproduction, and the overall survival of blue crabs. Additionally, chemicals often in untreated wastewater can disrupt natural processes like molting, further increasing mortality rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While previous studies have explored the effects of temperature and chemical contaminants on individual blue crabs, little is known about population-level affects.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Study<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Researchers leading a North Carolina Sea Grant and North Carolina State University study built a computer model that mimics the life cycle of individual blue crabs, including their growth, reproduction, and survival. They ran simulations using 30 different temperature and pollution scenarios to see how changes might impact North Carolina\u2019s crab population over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Temperature simulations ranged from no increases to a 0.75\u00b0 F increase per year over 50 years. Chemical scenarios ranged from no chemicals present to levels that for humans would prompt a health advisory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Researchers also explored how the timing of exposure to chemicals affected blue crabs, comparing the impacts of short, seasonal chemical exposure to continuous exposure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Findings<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Chemical contaminants significantly impacted blue crabs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At \u201clow\u201d chemical levels, the harvest weight of blue crabs dropped by roughly 17%, and when scaled for 2021 commercial blue crab landings, resulted in a catch reduction of nearly 2.2 million pounds.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continuous chemical exposure resulted in a major decline in population at all levels at all temperatures. At low chemical levels, blue crabs became extinct at the five-year mark, whereas at high chemical levels extinction happened in less than one year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with short-term seasonal exposure, if the chemical levels were at the moderate to high levels, the model predicted the blue crab population would be extinct at 20 years and 10 years respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The research team also found that blue crabs were relatively resilient to moderate changes in temperature. However, severe temperate shifts led to significant declines in catch. Both temperature changes and chemical contaminants also reduced the number of large, harvestable crabs in the population.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What&#8217;s Next?&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Extreme summer temperatures will likely have negative impacts on blue crabs populations. Not only will this reduce catch for fishers, but it will also affect reproduction as larger, slower-growing crabs die off before reaching reproductive maturity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With time, the population will shift to smaller crabs that can reproduce, which would also lead to a decrease in the overall size of the blue crab population and reduce the harvestable amount of crabs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to warming waters, urbanization along North Carolina\u2019s coast poses a growing risk for increased chemical contamination in coastal waters. However, data on the species-specific impacts of these chemicals remain scarce. This research explored a range of contamination scenarios for blue crabs, from the most realistic (short-term, low level exposure) to the most extreme (continuous, high level exposure), providing a framework that resource managers and researchers can refine as new data emerge.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>the full study<\/strong><br>Rocco, A. J., Cao, J., Li, Y., &amp; Lee, L. M. (2024). Evaluating impacts of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals on the North Carolina blue crab population: An individual-based model.&nbsp;<em>Marine and Coastal Fisheries<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>16<\/em>(2), e10286.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Lead photo credit: Alexis Longmire<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MADELINE PAYNE<\/strong> is the communication fellow for <em><a href=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/hooklinescience\/\">Hook, Line &amp; Science<\/a><\/em>, which originally published an earlier version of this story in February. Visit <em><a href=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/hooklinescience\/\">HookLineScience.com<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025\/\">FROM THE SUMMER 2025 ISSUE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Environmental stressors may push blue crab populations to their breaking point. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":31221,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ncst_custom_author":"Madeline Payne","ncst_show_custom_author":true,"ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"ncst\/default-post-header","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"{\"caption\":\"\",\"displayCategoryID\":596,\"showAuthor\":true,\"showDate\":true,\"showFeaturedVideo\":false,\"subtitle\":\"<strong>The Future of the State\u2019s Most Valuable Commercial Fishery<\/strong>\"}","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","ncst_content_audit_display":false,"ncst_backToTopFlag":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[597,591,599,584,595,596],"tags":[],"_ncst_magazine_issue":[],"class_list":["post-31220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blue-economy","category-climate-change","category-critters","category-hook-line-and-science","category-seafood","category-sustainable-fisheries-and-aquaculture"],"displayCategory":{"term_id":596,"name":"Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture","slug":"sustainable-fisheries-and-aquaculture","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":597,"taxonomy":"category","description":"North Carolina Sea Grant provides expert assistance to the state\u2019s diverse seafood and fishing industries, serving on advisory panels and connecting researchers to people who work in commercial and recreational fishing, aquaculture, and seafood. For decades, <em>Coastwatch<\/em> has chronicled how such projects help coastal communities, coastal cultures, and the long-term health of fisheries.","parent":0,"count":77,"filter":"raw"},"acf":{"ncst_posts_meta_modified_date":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will North Carolina\u2019s Blue Crabs Go Extinct? - Coastwatch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Environmental stressors may push blue crab populations to their breaking point.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will North Carolina\u2019s Blue Crabs Go Extinct? - Coastwatch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Environmental stressors may push blue crab populations to their breaking point.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coastwatch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-17T21:27:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-25T17:42:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2025\/06\/image-2.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1873\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1248\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dave Shaw\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dave Shaw\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dave Shaw\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/#\/schema\/person\/9462183c95cb42509aed4d3346e43fe1\"},\"headline\":\"Will North Carolina\u2019s Blue Crabs Go Extinct?\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-02-17T21:27:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-08-25T17:42:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\"},\"wordCount\":592,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2025\/06\/image-2.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Blue Economy\",\"Climate\",\"Critters\",\"Hook, Line and Science\",\"Seafood\",\"Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/summer-2025-blue-crabs\/\",\"name\":\"Will North Carolina\u2019s Blue Crabs Go Extinct? 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