\u201cWe see higher growth on the ocean shoreline,\u201d explains Tippett, who will share her insights on coastal growth and losses at North Carolina\u2019s Coastal Conference<\/a> on April 14. The conference is sponsored by the University of North Carolina System<\/a> and hosted by North Carolina Sea Grant<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jack Thigpen<\/a>, Sea Grant\u2019s extension director, is eager not only to hear Tippett\u2019s presentation, but also questions from those attending the conference. \u201cThis type of data is critical for discussions within coastal communities on a wide range of issues including land use, hazards planning and economic development,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n U.S. Census Bureau<\/a> data from 2010 to 2014 show that Brunswick County had a growth rate of 10.6 percent, giving a new tally of nearly 119,000 people. Brunswick was second only to Wake County for percentage increase. Nearby Pender County came in 10th. Its increase of 7.8 percent brought the population up to 56,250.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cBrunswick is a major retiree destination, which causes its age structure to shift relatively older. As a result, the county has experienced natural decrease, or more deaths than births. But the impact of natural decrease is more than offset by the large in-migration of retirees into the county,\u201d Tippett noted in a recent blog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cBrunswick was the 67th fastest- growing county in nation in 2010 to 2014,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n State officials expect the trend to continue. They estimate that by 2034, the population of Brunswick County will grow by more than 50 percent, to about 180,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In that same time, the state expects a growth of about 26 percent in the coastal region overall. Some counties will continue to lose residents, while others are expected to remain steady or see growth of 15 percent or less. The estimates are from the State Demographics Branch of the N.C. Office of State Budget and Management<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The census data show about 25 percent of the population in Brunswick County is aged 65 or over, compared to less than 15 percent statewide. Brunswick also has just 4.6 percent of residents ages 5 and under, compared to 6.2 percent statewide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The \u201cnew retirees\u201d in Brunswick County may bring higher demands for medical care and other services, including restaurants, Tippett explains. But, she adds, Florida has found that as retirees get older and\/or sicker, they tend to move away to be closer to family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Several coastal counties made a different list. Nearly half of all North Carolina counties lost population between 2010 and 2014. The top 10 in that list saw losses ranging from about 3 percent to more than 7 percent. (See tables in Tippett’s blog post on 2014 population estimates<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe most significant concentrations of population loss were seen in the northeastern region of the state. Among the 10 counties with the smallest growth rates, nine were located in the northeastern portion of the state near the Virginia border,\u201d Tippett notes. \u201cVirtually all of these counties are experiencing the combined impacts of net out-migration and natural decrease \u2014 more deaths than births \u2014 due to population aging.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The lure of the ocean is a draw for many residents and visitors, but it also offers unique challenges for coastal communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe census data does not capture the maximum seasonal population. For that, you need to look at housing units,\u201d Tippett notes, citing a recent study for the Greater Topsail Area Chamber of Commerce and Tourism<\/a>. The organization serves communities on and near the barrier island that straddles Onslow and Pender counties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tammy Proctor, chamber executive director, explains that prospective businesses often request the \u201csummer population\u201d statistics when considering locating in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNobody had that information,\u201d she recalls, citing calls to local, state and federal agencies, and other chambers in the coastal region to see if they had a reliable formula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She posed the question to Tippett and together they tracked down various pieces of information that could feed into a calculation to come up with an estimate. The chamber now maintains a spreadsheet that can be updated when revised statistics or additional data are gathered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAs a seasonal destination, Topsail\u2019s population ebbs and flows over time. It\u2019s hard to capture, but we can put clear boundaries on minimum and maximum population,\u201d Tippett explains. \u201cAt a minimum, we have the Greater Topsail Area\u2019s permanent population, its year-round residents captured in the census and population estimates. At the other end of the spectrum, we know how many seasonal housing units, hotels, motels and campgrounds there are, and we have a good idea of how many people they hold. This gives us our maximum occupancy capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The report estimates nearly 6,000 for the permanent population in the area. But the potential maximum would be more than 60,000 if all the vacation rentals and hotels are full and residents filled their homes with guests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNow we use that information all the time. I just sent it out to a prospect,\u201d Proctor adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mayor Debbie Sloan Smith of Ocean Isle Beach<\/a> in Brunswick County notes her community has similar growth each summer. That fact makes balancing town services and budgets a challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe have about 574 permanent residents for eight to nine months, then 25,000 for three to four months,\u201d she notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When discussions arise about community needs across the state, coastal towns often get grouped with others based on permanent population, not the prime summer season needs. \u201cLook at our utilities and the need for water and sewer,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAll 4,000 homes need to have police patrols.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tippett also is interested in job composition and commuting patterns in the coastal region, with the latter closely tied to transportation planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She cites strong employment ties in northeastern North Carolina counties to the Virginia Beach\/Norfolk area. Along our central coast, there are links to military bases, such as U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune. Among southeastern counties, many jobs are focused in or near Wilmington, or across the border near Myrtle Beach, S.C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These and other topics are on the minds of coastal leaders, Tippett notes, as she is asked to provide general talks and develop more specific projects, such as the Topsail area study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For more information on Carolina Demography, including its blog, go to demography.cpc.unc.edu<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This article was published in the Spring 2015<\/a> issue of Coastwatch.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Graphs](\"\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2015\/04\/combined_graphs_web.jpg\")
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