{"id":6129,"date":"2016-09-21T11:16:34","date_gmt":"2016-09-21T15:16:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/?page_id=6129"},"modified":"2024-08-21T15:03:44","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T19:03:44","slug":"hurricane-fran-revisited-lessons-from-a-benchmark-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/hurricane-fran-revisited-lessons-from-a-benchmark-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"HURRICANE FRAN REVISITED: Lessons From a Benchmark Storm"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n

The summer of 1996. It\u2019s hard to believe it\u2019s been 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlanta was prepping for the summer Olympics, DVDs were the new technology from Japan, and two new websites called eBay and Amazon were about to forever change the way we shop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for me, it was hurricanes Bertha and Fran that made the summer of \u201996 so memorable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time, I was living at the coast, my home tucked into the maritime dunes of Pine Knoll Shores just a few hundred feet from the Atlantic. When the wind was right, I could hear the thumping surf from my backyard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both hurricanes were born off the African coast \u2014 Bertha in July, Fran just weeks later in early September. I watched each one closely as they strengthened and churned westward, mindful of what they could mean for our coastal communities. Just a year earlier, UNC Press had released my first book, North Carolina\u2019s Hurricane History<\/em><\/a>, so I had added reason to monitor their every move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I remember Bertha was no lightweight. Its arrival during the heart of the tourist season was most unwelcomed by vacationers and business owners from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks. Strengthening to Category 2 intensity before landfall, Bertha came ashore between Wrightsville and Topsail beaches on July 12, buffeting the coast with sustained 80 mph, Category 1 winds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Hurricane
Hurricane Bertha preceded Fran by several weeks, bringing significant destruction to Topsail Island. Photo by Spencer Rogers.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pines snapped and tumbled, shingles flew, and many along the coast experienced the first hurricane-force winds of their lifetimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many coastal residents from Wilmington to Morehead City who had moved into the area since 1960, or most born after that time, had probably never experienced sustained hurricane-force winds \u2014 74 mph or greater \u2014 in their communities until Bertha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I fit that criteria. I was born in Southport in 1958, lived in Carteret County after that, and Bertha brought the first true hurricane-force winds I witnessed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cleanup was still underway when Fran first appeared as a green swirl edging across our computer screens. Many whose property was damaged by Bertha worked hard that summer to rebuild their docks, patch their roofs, and haul away mountains of tree limbs and debris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their work was stopped in its tracks when it became clear that Fran would strike near Cape Fear as a stronger, Category 3 storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, its inland course over farms, fields and cities would make Fran North Carolina\u2019s most destructive storm to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its wake, many were astounded by Fran\u2019s toll. New Hanover County beach towns experienced storm-surge flooding comparable to that of Hurricane Hazel, the gold standard for Tar Heel hurricane disasters. Winds gusted above 100 mph, pounding many of the same buildings, billboards and forests first punished by Bertha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Fran churned inland, rivers crested at record levels, fatalities quickly mounted, and the Triangle was hammered by a destructive hurricane for the first time in more than 40 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So few hurricanes made landfall here in North Carolina during the 1960s, \u201970s, \u201980s and early \u201990s that Bertha and Fran were a wake-up call of sorts \u2014 reminding us how vulnerable we are to dangerous tropical cyclones. Looking back two decades later, it\u2019s easy to let our memories of the \u201996 storms blur with others that followed, especially Bonnie in 1998, and Dennis and Floyd in 1999. Floyd was, by any measure, another benchmark disaster for the state, causing greater damage and more fatalities than Fran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for many reasons, memories of Fran resonate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI guess to the layman, it looked like a bomb went off,\u201d remembers Greg Fishel, WRAL-TV chief meteorologist in Raleigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Fran\u2019s core first approached the Triangle, Fishel wasn\u2019t convinced the storm was going to be so destructive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Fran
One scientist described the Triangle’s soil as “pancake batter” that caused trees to topple rather than snap. Photo by Dave Gately\/FEMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe started seeing gusts of 50 or 60 mph, and that didn\u2019t get my attention at first. We can have that in a severe thunderstorm. I don\u2019t think we ever even recorded sustained hurricane-force winds,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI was in the studio, and my wife called me and said, \u2018Have you been outside?\u2019 So we had the idea to broadcast out behind the studio. Well, my glasses blew off and my shoes filled with water in about a minute. It was just remarkable. And that destruction \u2014 it was the difference between one gust at 60 and six hours of 60 mph winds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fishel notes that as a meteorologist, it\u2019s important to understand not just how much wind and rain you measure, but the impact they can have on where you live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI learned a lot. I didn\u2019t have an understanding of our soil type here in the Triangle. Afterwards, I talked to a professor at NC State, and he described it as \u2018pancake batter.\u2019 You didn\u2019t see a lot of snapped trees here. They just came down, root ball and all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being Prepared<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A lot has changed in emergency management over the last two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI remember Fran well. I was totally unprepared for it,\u201d recalls Mike Sprayberry, director of the state\u2019s Division of Emergency Management, or DEM. At the time, he was a major in the Army National Guard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"NC
The N.C. Division of Emergency Management now has moved to a more spacious facility. Photo courtesy NC Emergency Management.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI was at home in Clinton. I left my wife and dog in the bathtub, and went to the armory. National Guardsmen know to head on in to work when the wind stops blowing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sprayberry now oversees North Carolina\u2019s disaster preparedness, response and recovery from the $53-million state Emergency Operations Center in Raleigh. Completed in 2012 with the help of federal stimulus funds, the center brings together emergency managers, the National Guard<\/a>, and state-of-the-art communications for the N.C. Department of Transportation<\/a> and Highway Patrol<\/a>. It\u2019s an impressive facility, and a far cry from the cramped, basement conference room on Jones Street that served as the operations center during Fran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve come a long way since Fran. We\u2019ve put in place so many programs and improvements. And there\u2019s a lot of money coming in to make these happen \u2014 from the feds, from the state, Homeland Security. It\u2019s a big investment. But it\u2019s an investment worth making.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regional urban rescue teams, climate-controlled mobile operating rooms, new products for coastal storm-surge modeling and a mobile app \u2014 ReadyNC<\/a>, which displays real-time evacuation information \u2014 are just a few of the division\u2019s many initiatives in recent years. But according to Sprayberry, his highest priority isn\u2019t in Raleigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAround here, people know my mission statement: What have you done for the counties today?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In North Carolina, county-level decision making is the model that works best, and DEM\u2019s job is to be a good broker by providing tools and resources. That, combined with high-level coordination with volunteer groups \u2014 such as the American Red Cross<\/a>, the Salvation Army<\/a> and the Baptist Men<\/a> \u2014 mean that future disasters will be met by well-trained and coordinated teams of responders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Making Investments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the years since Fran, other key investments are helping the state better prepare for future storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe importance of pre-disaster hazard mitigation planning paid off in Kinston,\u201d notes Gavin Smith, director of the Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill<\/a>. He advised Gov. Jim Hunt on long-term recovery in North Carolina after Hurricane Floyd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One year after Fran, the state purchased 360 of Kinston\u2019s most flood-prone homes, with another 600 acquired after Floyd. Eventually, this effort became one of the nation\u2019s largest single-state acquisition programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll told, the state acquired more than 5,000 homes and elevated another 1,000 following hurricanes Fran and Floyd,\u201d Smith adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Coastal
The Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence’s graduate certificate program provides students with academic and practice-based experiences in natural hazards resilience. Photo courtesy Coastal Resilience Center.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Resilience Center, established in 2015 and funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security<\/a>, comprises 22 universities and colleges throughout the country. The center conducts research and education for the next generation of hazard practitioners. Key research focuses on coastal infrastructure, building resilient communities and coastal hazards modeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under Smith\u2019s leadership, UNC-CH also established a graduate certificate program in natural hazards resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitigation and resilience are more than just buzzwords for those working to keep us safe and protect our property. But how far can we go to reduce losses in the next big hurricane?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn another storm like Fran, in general we\u2019d see similar flooding,\u201d warns Blair Hinkle, stormwater program manager for the City of Raleigh<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019d hope that our upgraded infrastructure would reduce the duration of the flooding. Water that stood for four hours or six hours during Fran now might stand for only two hours. But most pipes and catch basins are designed to handle a 10- to 25-year flood. Fran exceeded 100 years, based on chance occurrence. It would be cost-prohibitive to try to design for the 100-year level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like in Kinston, Hinkle notes that buyouts of flood-prone structures have been a focus for the city, reducing repetitive-loss claims. Another priority: upgrading Raleigh\u2019s 75 to 80 nonregulated ponds \u2014 many of which overtopped or failed during Fran \u2014 by rebuilding dams to be taller and stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raising Structures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Along the coast, where populations mushroomed since Fran \u2014 Brunswick County\u2019s, for example, has nearly doubled \u2014 local officials and planners know their communities remain vulnerable. Winds are fierce, but it\u2019s storm surge from a major hurricane that poses the greatest risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Hurricane
Prior to Hurricane Fran, Hazel in 1954 was the last major storm to hit southeastern North Carolina. Photo by Richard Davis\/NCDMF.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith Fran, we saw the highest water since Hazel in 1954,\u201d says Spencer Rogers<\/a>, North Carolina Sea Grant coastal construction and erosion specialist and a longtime New Hanover County resident. \u201cAnd here on Whiskey Creek at the Masonboro Boat Yard, the marks from Hazel and Fran were very close.\u201d The variation was much wider in neighboring Brunswick County.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rogers, who has spent his career studying coastal dynamics and the structures built in the region, notes that one solution is pretty obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBuilding above the floodplain is required, but adding even more elevation helps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding elevation is relatively inexpensive, depending upon how it\u2019s done. The costs are often quickly repaid with savings on things like flood insurance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a larger scale, elevating our beaches through sand nourishment is sometimes controversial public policy. But in the aftermath of Fran and Floyd, it proved effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe hurricanes of the \u201990s were a convenient test for beach nourishments. The performance was obvious during Fran \u2014 it was the higher test.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rogers explains that there are different scales of nourishment projects, two of which are designed projects that require regular maintenance. A third is sand disposal from navigation projects, where the goal is to find a place for dredged materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, there are storm-damage reduction projects, such as those conducted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers<\/a> in the mid-1960s in Carolina and Wrightsville beaches. Kure Beach was added in 1997 after Fran. The Corps\u2019 design cross-section includes building beach and dunes, which are key to preventing storm surge, erosion and waves from reaching the buildings and infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"dunes
During Fran, dunes constructed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were destroyed, a design intended to protect the structures behind them. Photo by Richard Davis\/NCDMF.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Next, smaller beach nourishment projects widen the beach to address long-term erosion, often paid for by cities, counties or the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFran was a 120-year storm. The Corps design did what it was supposed to do. In Fran and Floyd, the dunes were consumed by design, allowing water to go through, but prevented erosion around buildings \u2014 the most likely cause of building failures. After Dennis and Floyd, there were 968 erosion-threatened structures in North Carolina, but none behind the projects in Wrightsville, Carolina or Kure beaches.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fran also tested building code changes for near-ocean buildings implemented in 1986.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The updated standards, which Sea Grant helped develop, significantly improved structures\u2019 resistance to storm surge and waves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was apparent on Topsail Island where more than 97 percent of the newer buildings constructed after the code changes survived the storm. Of the 205 buildings identified as built after 1986, only five were destroyed. In comparison, more than 180 older buildings were destroyed in the same area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Homes
Homes on North Topsail Beach that adhered to building codes implemented after 1986 weathered Fran fairly well. Photo by Spencer Rogers.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Sea Grant developed a piling-depth test that helped confirm that the surviving post-1986 structures that sustained damage were not built to code.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with the work that\u2019s been done in North Carolina since Fran \u2014 the money spent, the mitigation efforts, the removal of flood-prone structures and the preparedness drills \u2014 we know the next great hurricane will test us again. So what can we expect when the next Fran or Hazel strikes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think for a lot of people, it will catch them off guard, just like Fran did,\u201d Sprayberry admits. \u201cPreparedness is so important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes, after time goes by, we see people develop \u2018hurricane amnesia.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think that\u2019s all the more reason to reflect \u2014 and learn from the storms of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jay Barnes<\/strong> is the author of four books on hurricanes, and often appears on media outlets such as The Weather Channel<\/a>, NBC Nightly News<\/a> and The Discovery Channel<\/a>. He is director of development for the North Carolina Aquarium Society<\/a>. For more on Barnes, go to jaybarnesonhurricanes.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the second in a series about Hurricane Fran. Jay Barnes recalls the immediate impact and aftereffects of the storm in the Summer 2016 issue of <\/em>Coastwatch<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was published in the Autumn 2016<\/a> issue of <\/em>Coastwatch.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 For contact information and reprint requests, visit <\/em>ncseagrant.ncsu.edu\/coastwatch\/contact\/<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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